The current account as a whole was $155.67bn in the red last year. Alistair Eperon, chairman of the CBI distributive trades panel, said: “The retailers’ view is that there is no need for further rate increases.”As official retail sales fell sharply in January, another drop would bring clear evidence of a downward trend in high street spending.Although the CBI survey reported a disturbing jump in retailers’ expectations of higher prices, most analysts thought the fall in sales would make it difficult for price rises to stick.Ian Shepherdson, an analyst at HSBC, said: “The chance of base rates rising in the short term have been dramatically reduced by recent economic data.”A range of statistics released yesterday were unhelpful to the currency markets, which nevertheless remained quiet. Apart from the weaker sales figures, the US reported that last year’s trade deficit was the biggest on record.The gap was $166.36bn, just beating the 1987 total. The Dow Jones average was 31 points higher by mid-morning, taking it to 4,056.7, while Treasury bonds had risen by more than half a point.
The transatlantic strength helped the FT-SE 100 index close 38.8 points higher at 3,050.6.The value of US retail sales fell last month for the first time in nearly a year.
Sales were 0.5 per cent lower than in January – whose level was revised up. Car sales fell 1 per cent, and sales of other items fell 0.4 per cent. The annual growth of sales has slowed sharply in recent months.Mark Cliffe, international economist at HSBC Markets, said: “This further evidence that growth is slowing means the Fed will not be in a hurry to raise interest rates.”Its next policy meeting takes place on 28 March.The CBI’s distributive trades survey for February pointed to the possibility of a fall in the official figures for retail sales in Britain, out today.The balance of retailers reporting higher sales volumes was, at minus 11, the weakest in more than two years. Weak retail spending on both sides of the Atlantic calmed fears of interest rate rises and sent equity and bond prices rising sharply. Bank rescues should be about short-term protection for customers, not the organisations themselves, which as likely as not deserve to be broken up, run down or sold..
Despite all that has happened Credit Lyonnais has been left largely intact, deciding its own timetables for asset disposals, and in the latest scheme transferring tens of billions of francs worth of lossmaking loans into a new company underwritten by the state.It is a situation the airline industry is only too familiar; the pricing and marketing of the efficient is undermined by state subsidised firms protected from the marketplace The European Commission may now open an investigation into state aid for Credit Lyonnais, after complaints from French rivals.Excessive competition and ready availability of capital have too often been the real reasons behind bad lending. That was not true of Barings.But while it may be common ground between the UK and French governments that both would prop up a major deposit taker, where detail is concerned, Credit Lyonnais is rapidly becoming a textbook case of how not to organise a rescue. It is almost certainly true that if a similar disaster struck here, the UK Government would also orchestrate a bail-out of any of our top half dozen private sector clearing banks.
The difference from the Barings case, where the Government stood back and allowed the bank to go into administration, is that the big clearers have huge numbers of depositors and are at the core of the payments system.If the money they hold on deposit is frozen or lost, it would be highly damaging for a very large number of people, including the other banks they deal with, some of which might be brought down as a consequence. Credit Lyonnais is already controlled by the government; only a minority stake is traded on the stock exchange, in the form of investment certificates.
As executive chairman of Credit Lyonnais, he is presiding over what in UK terms would be the equivalent of rescuing Lloyds or Midland Bank using state funds. Much is being made of the contrast; the billions being sunk into Credit Lyonnais and the decision here in Britain to allow Barings to go to the wall The two cases only bear superficial comparison, however. If you think Barings is bad, just look at what Jean Peyrelevade, one of the disaster-prone merchant bank’s non-executive directors, has to cope with at home. Sir Geoff has been lucky to keep his job while so many of his colleagues have been fed to the lions, but few would envy him his present task.. Woolworths is a retailing concept whose time has been and gone.It is hard to see what Sir Geoff can do to breathe life into the tired old formulae. Good old Woolies may have strong market positions in odd little areas such as garlic crushers and light bulbs, but its three chosen specialisms of toys, childwear and entertainment are all offered in fuller ranges and at keener prices elsewhere.Without wishing to be politically incorrect, the identification by Woolworths of the young mother as its core market just about says it all.
This was a case of eight out of ten for presentation but a Eurovision nil points for content. At best it amounted to an admission that mistakes had been made in the past and a promise not to repeat them in future. Perhaps it was a mistake to expect much more of a strategy cooked up in only six weeks by a board with only three executive directors, one of whom doesn’t speak English.
This is Philippe Frances, head of Darty, the French electrical subsidiary. Though he communicates through an interpreter, he seems about the best thing going for Kingfisher right now; without Darty, Kingfisher’s results would have been even worse.Woolworths still looks like a pig in a poke. As always, it is also a bit of a case of slamming the stable door after the horse has bolted..
